Many people are watching with alarm the appearance of a new and apparently quite dangerous strain of avian influenza in China over the past few weeks. For the record, I'm one of them, and this blog is devoted to tracking the outbreak, from its beginning to, hopefully, its conclusion.
When it comes to influenza, there appear to be two basic camps. The first camp is convinced that eventually there is going to be a massive pandemic causing untold social and economic chaos, and the death of millions of people. This camp points out that the last global pandemic (in 1918) was caused by influenza, and that we really would be unable to prevent a similar outbreak today.
The second group argues that pandemics are much rarer, that 1918 was something of a one-off crisis, and that the hoopla over the "Mexican flu" -- H1N1 -- a few years ago proves that we frail humans are far too apt to panic over what usually turn out to be quite minor events.
It remains to be seen which of these two groups has it right with respect to the Chinese H7N9 outbreak. This blog is devoted to tracking the issue, one way or the other.
Reporting as of the early morning hours of April 13, 2013, indicated that 43 people had been confirmed infected, and 11 of those have died, all in the People's Republic of China. More updates, and more in-depth analysis, as the issue develops.
